Nate Silver Calls The Oscars

oscarFiveThirtyEight’s superman Nate Silver has published his Oscars predictions, relying upon a host of factors:

Categories included genre, MPAA classification, the release date, opening-weekend box office (adjusted for inflation), and whether the film won any other awards. We also looked at whether being nominated in one category predicts success in another. For example, is someone more likely to win Best Actress if her film has also been nominated for Best Picture? (Yes!) But the greatest predictor (80 percent of what you need to know) is other awards earned that year, particularly from peers (the Directors Guild Awards, for instance, reliably foretells Best Picture). Genre matters a lot (the Academy has an aversion to comedy); MPAA and release date don’t at all. A film’s average user rating on IMDb (the Internet Movie Database) is sometimes a predictor of success; box grosses rarely are. And, as in Washington, politics matter, in ways foreseeable and not.

Silver’s predictions:

Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight 85.8%
Supporting Actress
Taraji P. Henson, Doubt 51.0%
Lead Actor
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler 71.1%
Lead Actress
Kate Winslet, The Reader 67.6%
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire 99.7%
Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire 99.0%

Get the explanations behind the numbers here.


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