FiveThirtyEight’s superman Nate Silver has published his Oscars predictions, relying upon a host of factors:
Categories included genre, MPAA classification, the release date, opening-weekend box office (adjusted for inflation), and whether the film won any other awards. We also looked at whether being nominated in one category predicts success in another. For example, is someone more likely to win Best Actress if her film has also been nominated for Best Picture? (Yes!) But the greatest predictor (80 percent of what you need to know) is other awards earned that year, particularly from peers (the Directors Guild Awards, for instance, reliably foretells Best Picture). Genre matters a lot (the Academy has an aversion to comedy); MPAA and release date don’t at all. A film’s average user rating on IMDb (the Internet Movie Database) is sometimes a predictor of success; box grosses rarely are. And, as in Washington, politics matter, in ways foreseeable and not.
|Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight||85.8%|
|Taraji P. Henson, Doubt||51.0%|
|Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler||71.1%|
|Kate Winslet, The Reader||67.6%|
|Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire||99.7%|
Get the explanations behind the numbers here.